Welcome to ARS Multi Media

Your Guide to Wealth Management

Explore our multi media

The Weekly Flyer – Monday, May 14th, 2018

The Markets

Splash!

How do employers lure staff in a tightening labor market? The curly tail grubs and spinnies of the business world are higher wages and better benefits.

During the past decade, the employment picture in the United States has shifted dramatically. In mid-2009, 15.4 million unemployed Americans were chasing 2.2 million available jobs. At the end of 2017, just 6.6 million Americans were unemployed, and employers were casting eagerly to fill 6.6 million open jobs, reports Barron’s.

Bloomberg offered some colorful examples:

Clearly, wages are moving higher for some types of jobs, but they’re not increasing everywhere. Last week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported real average hourly earnings for all employees were flat from March to April. ‘Real wages’ mean wages after inflation is subtracted.

The National Federation of Independent Business’ Small Business Optimism Index hit a record high in April, as small companies reported record profits. It was the 17th consecutive month of record optimism.

Major U.S. stock market indices moved higher last week as did many global stock market indices.

S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; the DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index does include reinvested dividends and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance, Barron’s, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.

 

What Do You Wish You Had Known Before You Became A Parent?

Mother’s Day is behind us and Father’s Day is ahead. It seems like a good time to consider the challenges and responsibilities of parenting.

“I wish someone told me that there are going to be moments where you’re playing chess with speed metal music in your ears. You’re trying to make intricate choices but there’s so much chaos.”

–Alan Lawrence, That Dad Blog

“I wish someone had told me to block out the outside voices that come when you become a parent – and pay more attention to the children and what their needs are.”

–Saira Siddiqui, Confessions of a Muslim Mom

 

“I wish someone had told me that even though your life changes when you become a parent, you still get to create the path you want.”

–Drea Duclos, OhDearDrea

“Parents always told me to brace myself for the teen years, because that’s when they’ll hate you, be disrespectful to you, be sassy, talk back to you, be rude, be generally awful people. But I wish that someone had told me that’s completely wrong.”

–Karen Walrond, Chookooloonks

One of the many challenges parents face is helping their children understand financial issues. If you would like some ideas about how to talk with your children about money, contact your financial professional.

 

Weekly Focus – Think About It

Best regards & fly safe!

Alex A. Tapia, AIF®
President & Retirement Wealth Planner

W. Carr Burgoyne, Jr., CFP®, CFS, AIF®
Director of Investment Planning

ARS-logo

* These views are those of Carson Group Coaching, and not the presenting Representative or the Representative’s Broker/Dealer, and should not be construed as investment advice.
* This newsletter was prepared by Carson Group Coaching. Carson Group Coaching is not affiliated with the named broker/dealer.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the afternoon gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association. The gold price is set twice daily by the London Gold Fixing Company at 10:30 and 15:00 and is expressed in U.S. dollars per fine troy ounce.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* You cannot invest directly in an index.
* Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal.
* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.

Sources:

http://www.barrons.com/mdc/public/page/9_3063-economicCalendar.html?mod=BOL_Nav_MAR_other (Click on U.S. & Intl Recaps, then click on “The unemployment lines are shrinking”; for market performance, click on “Iran and Korea overshadow economics”)

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-11/no-the-u-s-economy-isn-t-overheating

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/realer.nr0.htm?mod=article_inline

https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/2637/economics/real-wages-in-uk/

http://www.nfib.com/surveys/small-business-economic-trends/

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2018/05/11/609470215/your-turn-what-do-you-wish-youd-known-before-becoming-a-parent

https://www.thewrap.com/tina-fey-screwed-up-charlottesville-rally-snl-weekend-update/

 

The Weekly Flyer – Monday, May 7th, 2018

The Markets

What in the world?

A lot happened last week. Some of the notable events included:

Trade talks between the United States and China. The talks were described as “frank, efficient, and constructive,” although significant issues have yet to be resolved.

A Federal Open Market Committee meeting. The Federal Reserve indicated it expects to raise rates during 2018, but did not do so last week.

Low unemployment in the United States. U.S. unemployment fell to 3.9 percent, which is the lowest it has been since 2000. Typically, low employment is a sign of a strong economy.

Sky-high rates in Argentina. In an effort to shore up the nation’s currency, Argentina’s central bank “…hiked rates to 40 percent from 33.25 percent, a day after they were raised from 30.25 percent.”

Katy Perry roasted Warren BuffettKaty Perry revealed the ‘Left Shark’ – a backup dancer famous for being out of sync during Perry’s 2015 Super Bowl performance – was Warren Buffett.*

What do asset managers and researchers make of the current state of world economies and markets? A portfolio manager cited by Barron’s said, “…until proved otherwise, we remain in a long bull market, and there is an absence of indicators outside of the equity market itself (most notably in credit markets or financial conditions) to suggest this has ended.”

Michael Wilson, Chief U.S. Equity Strategist at Morgan Stanley has a different opinion. “Even strong earnings results haven’t been able to boost most stocks into positive territory. Why? Because rising interest rates have reached a point at which they have become a constraint on valuations.”

Some researchers are concerned about growth outside the United States. Alvise Marino, an FX strategist for Credit Suisse told The Wall Street Journal, “This is really a Goldilocks [U.S. employment] report…But investors are worried that global growth is not as strong as some had thought.”

We’re tracking events and their potential impact on markets, and we’ll keep you informed.

* Warren Buffet wasn’t really the Left Shark. Her comments were part of a humorous video.

S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; the DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index does include reinvested dividends and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance, Barron’s, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.

 

Myth Busted!

Founders of new companies aren’t who many people think they are. Sure, you’ve read stories about entrepreneurs who leave college to found companies that become behemoths. In fact, The Thiel Fellowship encourages young people to skip college and, “Pursue ideas that matter instead of mandatory tests. Take on big risks instead of big debt.”

While helping young people pursue new ideas is admirable, research from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) suggest a different age group is more likely to found successful fast-growth companies:

Almost one-fourth of new entrepreneurs are ages 55 to 64, reports Entrepreneur.com. They often have financial stability, professional support networks, and experience – all things The Thiel Fellowship tries to provide to younger founders.

What’s the point of this story? Age is just a number. People of all ages have great ideas and great potential.

 

Weekly Focus – Think About it

Best regards & fly safe!

Alex A. Tapia, AIF®
President & Retirement Wealth Planner

W. Carr Burgoyne, Jr., CFP®, CFS, AIF®
Director of Investment Planning

ARS-logo

* These views are those of Carson Group Coaching, and not the presenting Representative or the Representative’s Broker/Dealer, and should not be construed as investment advice.
* This newsletter was prepared by Carson Group Coaching. Carson Group Coaching is not affiliated with the named broker/dealer.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the afternoon gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association. The gold price is set twice daily by the London Gold Fixing Company at 10:30 and 15:00 and is expressed in U.S. dollars per fine troy ounce.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* You cannot invest directly in an index.
* Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal.
* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.

Sources:

http://www.barrons.com/mdc/public/page/2_3064-485653.html (Click on “U.S. & Intl Recaps,” then “Keeping up with the facts”)
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2018/05/02/federal-reserve-keeps-interest-rates-unchanged-but-sees-moderate-growth-and-rising-inflation-ahead/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.2876d51ebc37
https://www.investopedia.com/news/downside-low-unemployment/
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-44001450
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/berkshire-hathaway-2018-annual-meeting-analysis (or go to https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/peakcontent/+Peak+Commentary/05-07-18_WSJ-Warren_Buffett_Holds_Court_at_Berkshire_Hathaways_Annual_Woodstock_for_Capitalists-Footnote_5.pdf
https://www.barrons.com/articles/a-sampling-of-advisory-opinion-1525478403 (or go to https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/peakcontent/+Peak+Commentary/05-07-18_Barrons-A_Sampling_of_Advisory_Opinion-Footnote_6.pdf
https://www.morganstanleyfa.com/public/projectfiles/onthemarkets.pdf
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/april-2018-jobs-report-analysis
http://thielfellowship.org (Click on down arrow)
http://mitsloan.mit.edu/uploadedFilesV9/180325%20Age%20and%20Successful%20Entrepreneurship.pdf (Page 5)
https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/294799
https://www.entrepreneur.com/slideshow/300234#1

The Weekly Flyer – Monday, April 30, 2018

The Markets

A meeting of the minds.

The Federal Reserve and the U.S. bond market appear to be in agreement about the direction of interest rates. For more years than anyone cares to count, investment professionals have been predicting the end of the bull market in bonds. Bond guru Bill Gross called the end of the bond bull in 2011 – and called it again in 2013. He wasn’t alone. Strategists who participated in Barron’s Outlooks anticipated rising interest rates in 2014 and 2015, too.

The Federal Reserve began encouraging interest rates higher in December 2015 when it increased the Fed funds rate for the first time in a decade. However, the yield on 10-year Treasuries remained stubbornly low. In fact, it fell below 2 percent following the rate hike and stayed there until November 2016.

Since 2015, the Fed has raised rates six times. The latest increase, along with signs of higher inflation, helped push bond rates higher. Higher interest rates could shift investors’ preferences in some significant ways, according to sources cited by Barron’s:

We may be at a turning point.

S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; the DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index does include reinvested dividends and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance, Barron’s, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.

 

We’ll Need A New Kind Of Umbrella For This.

In February, a new research paper disclosed a finding no one wants to hear about: Viruses are falling from the sky. Literally. Science Daily summarized a report from the University of British Columbia. The report said:

The New York Times reported the researchers journeyed to Spain and used buckets on mountaintops to catch whatever might fall from the sky. The scientists weren’t surprised to find viruses, but they were surprised by the quantity of viruses captured. Best estimates suggest 800 million viruses shower every square meter of the Earth every day.

Don’t panic! Viruses are responsible for a lot more than diseases. Scientists theorize viruses and humans may have a symbiotic relationship. According to Popular Science:

Good or bad, the question remains: where do atmospheric viruses originate? No one knows for sure. There are a variety of theories. One theory is viruses are swept from the planet into the atmosphere. Another is viruses originate in the atmosphere. A third is viruses arrive from outer space.

The truth is out there!

Weekly Focus – Think About it

Best regards & fly safe!

Alex A. Tapia, AIF®
President & Retirement Wealth Planner

W. Carr Burgoyne, Jr., CFP®, CFS, AIF®
Director of Investment Planning

ARS-logo

* These views are those of Carson Group Coaching, and not the presenting Representative or the Representative’s Broker/Dealer, and should not be construed as investment advice.
* This newsletter was prepared by Carson Group Coaching. Carson Group Coaching is not affiliated with the named broker/dealer.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the afternoon gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association. The gold price is set twice daily by the London Gold Fixing Company at 10:30 and 15:00 and is expressed in U.S. dollars per fine troy ounce.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* You cannot invest directly in an index.
* Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal.
* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.

Sources:

https://www.barrons.com/articles/BL-INCOMB-2495 (or go to https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/peakcontent/+Peak+Commentary/04-30-18_Barrons-Pimcos_Gross-30-Yr_Bond_Bull_Market_Officially_Over-Footnote_1.pdf)
https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-could-rise-10-in-2016-according-to-market-strategists-1449899461 (or go to https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/peakcontent/+Peak+Commentary/04-30-18_Barrons-Stock_Market_Outlook_2016-Footnote_2.pdf)
https://www.barrons.com/articles/outlook-2015-stick-with-the-bull-1418449329 (or go to https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/peakcontent/+Peak+Commentary/04-30-18_Barrons-Outlook_2015-Stick_with_the_Bull-Footnote_3.pdf)
http://money.cnn.com/2015/12/16/news/economy/federal-reserve-interest-rate-hike/index.html
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/^TNX/history?period1=1448949600&period2=1524891600&interval=1mo&filter=history&frequency=1mo (or go to https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/peakcontent/+Peak+Commentary/04-30-18_Yahoo_Finance-CBOE_Interest_Rate-Footnote_5.pdf)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-26/central-banks-take-it-easy-to-give-global-growth-a-second-look
https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-stock-market-thats-never-satisfied-1524875305 (or go to https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/peakcontent/+Peak+Commentary/04-30-18_Barrons-The_Stock_Market_Thats_Never_Satisfied-Footnote_7.pdf)
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/02/180206090650.htm
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/13/science/virosphere-evolution.html
https://www.popsci.com/our-viral-friends
https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/johannes_kepler_144004?src=t_phenomena

The Weekly Flyer – Monday, April 23rd, 2018

The Markets

The world is in debt.

The April 2018 International Monetary Fund (IMF) Fiscal Monitor reported global debt has reached a historically high level. In 2016, debt peaked at 225 percent of global gross domestic product (GDP) (the value of all goods and services produced across the world). Public debt is a significant component of global debt. The IMF wrote:

There are numerous reasons high levels of government debt (the amount a government owes) and significant deficits (the difference between how much a government takes in from taxes and other sources and how much it spends) are a cause for concern:

Higher interest payments. Governments typically finance debt by issuing government bonds. When bonds mature, the government issues new debt. If interest rates have risen, the cost of that debt increases. As a result, high debt levels can make tax hikes and spending cuts a necessity, explained the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.
Lower national savings and income. You may have heard the phrase, “Robbing Peter to pay Paul,” which means taking money from one source to pay another. When a country runs a deficit, a similar thing happens. In The Long-Run Effects of Federal Budget Deficits on National Saving and Private Domestic Investment, the Congressional Budget Office explained, “…a dollar’s increase in the federal deficit results in…a 33 cent decline in domestic investment.”
The tax lag. In his book, Do Deficits Matter?, Daniel Shaviro suggests sustained deficit spending creates a ‘tax lag’ by shifting responsibility for current spending onto future generations.

The IMF Fiscal Monitor wrote, “countries need to build fiscal buffers now by reducing government deficits and putting debt on a steady downward path.”

Last week, the interest rate on 10-year U.S. Treasuries rose above 2.9 percent, which raised concerns about inflation. Markets moved higher early in the week and tumbled later in the week. The major U.S. stock indices finished the week higher.

S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; the DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index does include reinvested dividends and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance, Barron’s, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.

Are You An Insect Gourmet?

Throughout history, people have eaten bugs. According to National Geographic, hunter-gatherers probably learned which insects were edible by watching birds. People’s appetite for bugs didn’t disappear as they became more civilized. Pliny, a Roman scholar, wrote beetle larvae fed a diet of flour and wine were a favorite snack of aristocratic Romans.

The tradition of eating insects continues today.

According to National Geographic, “Gourmands in Japan savor aquatic fly larvae sautéed in sugar and soy sauce. De-winged dragonflies boiled in coconut milk with ginger and garlic are a delicacy in Bali. Grubs are savored in New Guinea and aboriginal Australia. In Latin America cicadas, fire-roasted tarantulas, and ants are prevalent in traditional dishes.”

Reuters said in Germany, Netherlands, and Belgium, shoppers can buy burgers made of buffalo worms (the larvae of buffalo beetles) at the local grocery. It’s a visually pleasing product, according to one of the burger company’s founders, because the insects don’t show.

In North Carolina, diners can order a tarantula burger, described as “…a hamburger topped with a crunchy full-grown, oven-roasted tarantula.” It comes with a side of fries – and possibly a drink to wash it down as fast as possible. Other restaurants across the United States offer fried silkworm larvae, red ant salad, cricket crab cakes and cricket pastry, and grasshopper rolls, according to Reuters and Spoon University.

Bon appetit! (Or should that be bug appetit?)

Weekly Focus – Think About it

Best regards & fly safe!

Alex A. Tapia, AIF®
President & Retirement Wealth Planner

W. Carr Burgoyne, Jr., CFP®, CFS, AIF®
Director of Investment Planning

ARS-logo

* These views are those of Carson Group Coaching, and not the presenting Representative or the Representative’s Broker/Dealer, and should not be construed as investment advice.
* This newsletter was prepared by Carson Group Coaching. Carson Group Coaching is not affiliated with the named broker/dealer.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the afternoon gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association. The gold price is set twice daily by the London Gold Fixing Company at 10:30 and 15:00 and is expressed in U.S. dollars per fine troy ounce.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* You cannot invest directly in an index.
* Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal.
* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.

Sources:

http://www.imf.org/en/Publications/FM/Issues/2018/04/06/fiscal-monitor-april-2018 (Click on Chapter 1, Full Text of Chapter 1, page 1)
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/personal-finance/081315/debt-vs-deficit-understanding-differences.asp
http://www.crfb.org/blogs/marc-goldwein-national-debt-yes-rising-annual-deficits-threaten-us-economy
http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/45140-NSPDI_workingPaper.pdf (Page 6)
http://www.press.uchicago.edu/Misc/Chicago/751120.html
https://www.nasdaq.com/article/stock-market-news-for-apr-20-2018-cm950849
http://online.barrons.com/mdc/public/page/9_3063-economicCalendar.html (Click on “U.S. & Intl Recaps,” then “Geopolitical concerns ease”)
https://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2004/07/0715_040715_tvinsectfood.html
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-food-insectburger/german-shoppers-sample-burgers-made-of-buffalo-worms-idUSKBN1HS0JF
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-north-carolina-tarantula-burger/you-want-tarantula-with-that-at-u-s-burger-joint-its-an-option-idUSKBN1HO29S
https://spoonuniversity.com/place/us-restaurants-that-serve-insect-dishes
http://library.intellectualtakeout.org/content/quotes-united-states-national-debt-budget-deficits

The Weekly Flyer – Monday, April 16th, 2018

The Markets

What do you think?

Are you bullish, bearish, or neutral about the U.S. stock market?
Are U.S. stocks undervalued, overvalued, or fairly valued?
What is the biggest threat the U.S. stock market faces this year?

During the first four months of 2018, U.S. stocks have experienced not one, but two, 10 percent declines. These short-term reversals are known as corrections. They occur relatively often, helping to wring out investor exuberance and, sometimes, to create buying opportunities as share prices drop.

The current twinset of corrections appears to have created a fair amount of uncertainty, according to Barron’s bi-annual Big Money Poll of professional investors. The ranks of the bullish have diminished, and the bearish remain relatively unchanged, but the number of those who are ‘neutral’ has swelled:

  Fall 2017 Spring 2018
Bullish 61% 55%
Bearish 12% 11%
Neutral 27% 34%

Professional investors say their clients were also unsure about the stock markets. They indicated 60 percent of clients were neutral about stocks, while 23 percent were bullish and 17 percent were bearish.

When asked about market valuations, a majority thought U.S. stocks were fairly valued (57 percent) after the corrections. Thirty-five percent believe stocks remain overvalued, and 8 percent believe stocks have become undervalued.

If either ‘political/policy missteps’ or ‘rising interest rates’ was your answer to the biggest threat to U.S. stocks, then you’re thinking like a professional investor. Their list of worries included:

Political/policy missteps 35%
Rising interest rates 32%
Earnings disappointments 7%
Geopolitical crises 7%

Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.8 percent, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was up 2.0 percent, and the NASDAQ Composite rose 2.8 percent.

Data as of 4/13/18 1-Week Y-T-D 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year
Standard & Poor’s 500 (Domestic Stocks) 2.0% -0.7% 14.1% 8.3% 11.3% 7.2%
Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. 1.2 -0.2 16.4 3.4 4.3 0.6
10-year Treasury Note (Yield Only) 2.8 NA 2.2 1.9 1.7 3.5
Gold (per ounce) 0.9 3.6 4.6 3.9 -0.8 3.8
Bloomberg Commodity Index 2.7 1.3 3.5 -3.4 -7.2 -8.2
DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index -0.9 -7.9 -4.1 3.3 6.0 6.6
S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five- and 10-year are annualized; the DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index does include reinvested dividends and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance, Barron’s, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.

What Does Your Playlist Say About You?

Your preference for pop, country, opera, classic rock, or some other type of music may provide clues to your personality, according to an article in Psychological Science entitled ‘Musical Preferences Predict Personality.’

Psychologists have been studying ‘personality’ for a long time. Their goal is to understand why people think, feel, and behave differently in the same situation. The prevailing personality model is called the ‘Big Five.’ It holds there are five factors that describe a broad range of personality traits and characteristics. No single factor describes personality by itself:

Extroversion includes people on two ends of a spectrum, introverts and extroverts. Extroverts thrive on interactions with others while introverts thrive on solitude. This factor reflects a person’s tendency to be sociable, assertive, talkative, and friendly.
Agreeableness describes how well people get along well with others. This factor encompasses altruism, trust, tact, and loyalty.
Conscientiousness describes how well people control their impulses and act in socially acceptable ways. It encompasses persistence, ambition, energy, and resourcefulness.
Neuroticism describes how comfortable and confident people are with themselves. It encompasses awkwardness, pessimism, insecurity, and wariness.
Openness to experience describes willingness to try new experiences and think outside the box. This factor reflects perceptiveness, curiosity, insightfulness, and imagination.

As it turns out, musical preferences are pretty good predictors of some personality factors, especially openness, extroversion, and agreeableness. Openness is associated with a preference for ‘sophisticated’ music (classical, operatic, world, and jazz), extroversion is associated with ‘unpretentious’ music (country and folk), and, as you might expect, agreeableness is associated with liking all types of music.

It’s notable that musical preferences fail to predict conscientiousness.

 

Weekly Focus- Think About It

“Sometimes they would take two ropes and turn them as a single rope together, but you could separate them and turn them in like an eggbeater on each other. The skipping rope was like a steady timeline – tick, tick, tick, tick – upon which you can add rhymes and rhythms and chants. Those ropes created a space where we were able to contribute to something that was far greater than the neighborhood.”

–Kyra Gaunt, Professor, Songwriter, Performer

Best regards & fly safe!

Alex A. Tapia, AIF®
President & Retirement Wealth Planner

W. Carr Burgoyne, Jr., CFP®, CFS, AIF®
Director of Investment Planning

ARS-logo

 

* These views are those of Carson Group Coaching, and not the presenting Representative or the Representative’s Broker/Dealer, and should not be construed as investment advice.
* This newsletter was prepared by Carson Group Coaching. Carson Group Coaching is not affiliated with the named broker/dealer.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the afternoon gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association. The gold price is set twice daily by the London Gold Fixing Company at 10:30 and 15:00 and is expressed in U.S. dollars per fine troy ounce.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* You cannot invest directly in an index.
* Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal.
* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.

Sources:
https://www.barrons.com/articles/big-money-poll-more-good-news-for-stocks-1523665374 (or go to https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/peakcontent/+Peak+Commentary/04-16-18_Barrons-Big_Money_Poll-More_Good_News_for_Stocks-Footnote_2.pdf)
https://www.barrons.com/articles/dow-closes-the-week-up-427-pointsthe-hard-way-1523664000 (or go to https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/peakcontent/+Peak+Commentary/04-16-18_Barrons-Dow_Closes_the_Week_Up_427_Points-the_Hard_Way-Footnote_3.pdf)
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/322506461_Musical_Preferences_Predict_Personality_Evidence_from_Active_Listening_and_Facebook_Likes
https://positivepsychologyprogram.com/big-five-personality-theory/
https://www.ted.com/talks/kyra_gaunt_how_the_jump_rope_got_its_rhythm/transcript#t-84378

The Weekly Flyer – Monday, April 9th, 2018

The Markets

You could almost hear the spurs jingling.

Trade tensions ratcheted higher last week as the United States and China staked new positions on the not-so-dusty main street of trade. It was the latest round of posturing in what has the potential to become a trade war between the world’s largest economies. Barron’s explained:

“The trade battle has escalated since President Trump announced steel tariffs in March. China retaliated to those tariffs with its own duties, and the resulting back and forth resulted in announced tariffs on $50 billion worth of goods on both sides. Late on Thursday, Trump also directed the U.S. trade representative to identify $100 billion more in potential tariffs on Chinese goods.”

It was unwelcome news in financial markets where one-upmanship created uncertainty and unnerved investors. Distress in stock and bond markets may have been exacerbated by analysts’ warnings about worst-case scenarios, including the possibility of China reducing its $1.2 trillion position in U.S. Treasuries and diversifying its foreign exchange reserves into other nation’s currencies, according to Financial Times.

American manufacturing businesses have concerns about supply chain and other issues that may be created by tariffs, reported Forbes. In addition, farmers are bracing for the impact of a potential trade war. The New York Times wrote:

“China’s aggressive response to Mr. Trump’s tariffs is aimed squarely at products produced in the American heartland, a region that helped send him to the White House. A trade war with China could be particularly devastating to rural economies, especially for pig farmers and soybean and corn growers. Nearly two-thirds of United States soybean exports go to China.”

Major U.S. indices finished lower last week for the third time in four weeks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 10.1 percent from its January closing high. Technically, that puts the Dow in correction territory.

 

Data as of 4/6/18 1-Week Y-T-D 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year
Standard & Poor’s 500 (Domestic Stocks) -1.4% -2.6% 10.5% 7.6% 10.8% 6.6%
Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. 0.1 -1.4 14.7 3.5 4.1 0.2
10-year Treasury Note (Yield Only) 2.8 NA 2.3 1.9 1.7 3.6
Gold (per ounce) 0.6 2.7 6.3 3.2 -3.3 3.7
Bloomberg Commodity Index -0.6 -1.4 1.4 -4.9 -8.4 -8.3
DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index -0.4 -7.0 -2.2 2.3 6.0 6.2

S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five- and 10-year are annualized; the DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index does include reinvested dividends and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.

Sources: Yahoo! Finance, Barron’s, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.

The Not-So-Secret March Madness Effect

Have you ever wondered how students select colleges? Economic theory suggests, “Models of college choice typically assume that high school students are fully informed and choose to apply to and eventually attend a school that maximizes their expected, present discounted value of future wages less the costs associated with college attendance.”

It’s a good theory, if you’re an economist who believes people act in perfectly rational ways. Of course, there aren’t many high school students (or parents) who can explain the present discounted value of something, much less use it as a tool to choose a college.

The filters on college search tools include criteria that may be more relevant to the decision. College Board’s BigFuture online interactive guide asks students to consider their test scores – as well as a college or university’s geography, size, type, cost, diversity, and support services – among other factors.

Those other factors include college sports. As it turns out, the success of a school’s sports teams plays a significant role in the college selection process for some students. The Journal of Sports Economics published ‘Understanding College Application Decisions: Why College Sports Success Matters.’ It’s the work of economists at the University of Chicago (UC) who found:

“A school that is invited to the NCAA basketball tournament can on average expect an increase in sent SAT scores in the range of 2 percent to 11 percent the following year depending on how far the team advances in the tournament. The top 20 football teams also can expect increases of between 2 percent and 12 percent the following year.”

Having a sports team make it to the Final Four is roughly equivalent to a college adjusting tuition or financial aid by 6 percent to 32 percent or moving halfway up the list on the U.S. News College Rankings, according to UC researchers.

 

Weekly Focus- Think About It

“They say that nobody is perfect. Then they tell you practice makes perfect. I wish they’d make up their minds.”

–Wilt Chamberlain, American basketball player

Best regards & fly safe!

Alex A. Tapia, AIF®
President & Retirement Wealth Planner

W. Carr Burgoyne, Jr., CFP®, CFS, AIF®
Director of Investment Planning

ARS-logo

 

*These views are those of Carson Group Coaching, and not the presenting Representative or the Representative’s Broker/Dealer, and should not be construed as investment advice.
* This newsletter was prepared by Carson Group Coaching. Carson Group Coaching is not affiliated with the named broker/dealer.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the afternoon gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association. The gold price is set twice daily by the London Gold Fixing Company at 10:30 and 15:00 and is expressed in U.S. dollars per fine troy ounce.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* You cannot invest directly in an index.
* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
* Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal.

Sources:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/apr/05/china-us-win-concessions-tariff-war-trade-donald-trump-xi-jinping
https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-brewing-u-s-china-trade-war-explained-in-charts-1523052689 (or go to https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/peakcontent/+Peak+Commentary/04-09-18_Barrons-The_Brewing_US-China_Trade_War_Explained_in_Charts-Footnote_2.pdf)
https://www.ft.com/content/df22be26-37fc-11e8-8eee-e06bde01c544 (or go to https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/peakcontent/+Peak+Commentary/04-09-18_FinancialTimes-Brewing_US-China_Trade_War_Spooks_Asset_Managers-Footnote_3.pdf)
https://www.forbes.com/sites/stevebanker/2018/03/02/trumps-tariffs-trade-wars-and-the-supply-chain/#67740190729a
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/07/us/politics/trump-trade-china-politics-heartland.html
https://www.barrons.com/articles/tariff-fears-and-a-jobs-report-send-stocks-lower-1523066354 (or go to https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/peakcontent/+Peak+Commentary/04-09-18_Barrons-Tariff_Fears_and_a_Jobs_Report_Send_Stocks_Lower-Footnote_6.pdf)
http://faculty.chicagobooth.edu/devin.pope/research/pdf/Website_Sports%20Econ%20Attention.pdf
https://bigfuture.collegeboard.org/college-search (Pages 107-108; 127; and 128)
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/57090

The Weekly Flyer – Monday, April 2nd, 2018

The Markets

In like a lion…

Investors roared into 2018.

During the first week of the first quarter of the New Year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose above 25,000 for the first time ever. Less than two weeks later, it closed above 26,000. The Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index and NASDAQ Composite also reached new all-time highs.

Strong performance was supported by strong fundamentals. In December 2017, Mohamed A. El-Erian wrote in BloombergView economic and policy fundamentals, including synchronized global recovery, progress on U.S. tax reform, improved certainty around Brexit, and orderly acceptance of changing U.S. monetary policy, “…reinforce the prospects for better actual and future growth, thereby increasing the possibility of improved fundamentals validating notably elevated asset prices.”

During the first quarter, the global economy remained robust, reported Forbes. American companies were profitable (profitability is measured by earnings) and earnings per share for the S&P 500 Index are expected to increase during 2018. FactSet reported analysts currently estimate the S&P 500 Index will deliver double-digit earnings growth (18.5 percent overall) during 2018. Here’s what the analysts anticipate each quarter:

• Q1: Earnings growth of 17.3 percent

• Q2: Earnings growth of 19.1 percent

• Q3: Earnings growth of 20.9 percent

• Q4: Earnings growth of 17.1 percent

Improving expectations for American companies can be credited, in large part, to tax reform, which lowered corporate tax rates significantly. In addition, rising oil prices may help companies in the Energy sector, and rising interest rates may give a boost to companies in the Financials sector.

Despite a robust global economy, strong earnings, and improving earnings per share (EPS) expectations, the major U.S. stock indices delivered negative quarterly returns for the first time since 2015. On March 29, the last trading day of the quarter, the Dow closed at about 24,100.

If fundamentals are strong, why did major indices in the United States (and many indices around the world) finish the quarter lower? Financial Times suggested uncertainty might have something to do with the retreat:

“The tax cut has been achieved. We are no longer so sure that [President Trump’s] remaining ideas are so good, and most investors think his ideas about trade are downright terrible. And so the market has started reacting to presidential tweets… Most importantly, though, key assumptions have been stripped away. We can no longer rely on low volatility. And critically, the positive view of a low-inflation strong-growth future has been called into question – but only after the stock market had priced in that assumption as a done deal.”

Market declines may also reflect concern about valuations. One financial professional told Financial Times many asset classes have gone from being very expensive to being expensive. They haven’t yet gotten inexpensive.

Out like a lamb…

The last week of the quarter was a good one for U.S. stock markets, which pushed higher. However, the major indices were unable to overcome deficits accumulated earlier in the quarter. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.4 percent last week, finishing the quarter down 2.5 percent. The S&P 500 Index was up 2.0 percent last week, down 1.2 percent for the quarter. Likewise, the NASDAQ bounced 1.0 percent last week, but ended the quarter down 2.3 percent, reported Barron’s.

Data as of 3/29/18 1-Week Y-T-D 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year
Standard & Poor’s 500 (Domestic Stocks) 2.0% -1.2% 11.9% 8.2% 10.1% 7.2%
Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. 0.6 -1.5 13.6 3.9 3.9 0.6
10-year Treasury Note (Yield Only) 2.7 NA 2.4 2.0 1.8 3.4
Gold (per ounce) -1.7 2.1 5.8 3.8 -3.5 3.6
Bloomberg Commodity Index 0.0 -0.8 2.4 -4.1 -8.5 -8.0
DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index 3.7 -6.7 -0.3 2.7 6.7 6.9

S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; the DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index does include reinvested dividends and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods. Sources: Yahoo! Finance, Barron’s, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.

If You Asked Artificial Intelligence (AI) To Bake, What Would It Make?

Janelle Shane at PopSci.com wrote, “When computers try to imitate humans, they often get confused. But simulated brain cells in so-called neural networks can mimic our problem-solving skills. An AI will look at a dataset, figure out its governing rules, and use those instructions to make something new. We already employ these bots to recognize faces, drive cars, and caption images for the blind. But can a computer cook?”

Shane addressed the question by training a computer’s neural network to write a recipe. The computer reviewed a dataset of more than 24,000 online recipes (647 of them began with the word chocolate and 8 included blood as an ingredient). After two days of processing, the network delivered a remarkable recipe that includes a title, category, ingredients, and directions, although the nonsensical word choices are likely to leave bakers uncertain about how to proceed:

CHOCOLATE BUTTERBROTH BLACK PUDDING

cheese/eggs

4 oz cocoa; finely ground

1 teaspoon butter

½ cup milk

¼ teaspoon pepper

¼ cup rice cream, chopped

1 lb cream

1 sesame peel

– DATE HOLY –

1 large egg

1 powdered sugar serving barme

¼ cup butter or margarine, melted

Brown sugar, chocolate; baking powder, beer, lemon juice and salt in chunk in greased 9×2 inch cake. Chill until golden brown and bubbly. Place serve garlic half by pieoun on top to make more use bay. Place in frying pan in preheated oven. Sprinkle with fresh parsley for cooking. Eating dish to hect in pot of the oil, pullover half-and half…Yield: 1 cake”

AI seems to have missed an important governing rule for recipes: Instructions should not include unlisted ingredients and all ingredients should be included in the instructions. DATE HOLY is particularly baffling. The author suggested the neural network might have been trying for frosting. It is a cake, after all.

Weekly Focus- Think About It

“We are surrounded by hysteria about the future of artificial intelligence and robotics – hysteria about how powerful they will become, how quickly, and what they will do to jobs…Mistaken predictions lead to fears of things that are not going to happen, whether it’s the wide-scale destruction of jobs, the Singularity, or the advent of AI that has values different from ours and might try to destroy us. We need to push back on these mistakes.”

Rodney Brooks, Australian robotics entrepreneur

Best regards & fly safe!

Alex A. Tapia, AIF®
President & Retirement Wealth Planner

W. Carr Burgoyne, Jr., CFP®, CFS, AIF®
Director of Investment Planning

ARS-logo

 

* These views are those of Peak Advisor Alliance, and not the presenting Representative or the Representative’s Broker/Dealer, and should not be construed as investment advice.
* This newsletter was prepared by Peak Advisor Alliance. Peak Advisor Alliance is not affiliated with the named broker/dealer.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indices referenced are unmanaged. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the afternoon gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association. The gold price is set twice daily by the London Gold Fixing Company at 10:30 and 15:00 and is expressed in U.S. dollars per fine troy ounce.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* You cannot invest directly in an index.
* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
* Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal.

Sources:
https://www.barrons.com/articles/dow-25-000-how-high-can-it-go-1515213968 (or go to https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/peakcontent/+Peak+Commentary/04-02-18_Barrons-Dow_25000-How_High_Can_It_Go-Footnote_1.pdf)
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-12-11/4-developments-to-watch-in-global-economy
https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2018/03/27/sorry-bears-these-big-market-corrections-are-not-evidence-the-end-is-near/#307d2be9fa38
https://insight.factset.com/hubfs/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_032918.pdf
https://insight.factset.com/record-high-increase-in-sp-500-eps-estimates-for-q1-and-cy-2018
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EDJI/history?p=%5EDJI
https://www.ft.com/content/05a60e04-3357-11e8-ac48-10c6fdc22f03 (or go to https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/peakcontent/+Peak+Commentary/04-02-18_FinancialTimes-Four_Financial_Questions_for_Passover-Footnote_7.pdf)
https://www.ft.com/content/1e6c15e4-3359-11e8-ac48-10c6fdc22f03 (or go to https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/peakcontent/+Peak+Commentary/04-02-18_FinancialTimes-US_Stocks_Hit_by_First_Quarterly_Losses_Since_2015-Footnote_8.pdf)
https://www.barrons.com/articles/dow-gains-569-points-but-falls-for-the-quarter-1522454402 (or go to https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/peakcontent/+Peak+Commentary/04-02-18_Barrons-Dow_Gains_569_Points_but_Falls_for_the_Quarter-Footnote_9.pdf)
https://www.popsci.com/neural-network-bakes-a-cake (or go to https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/peakcontent/+Peak+Commentary/04-02-18_PopularScience-Recipe-Chocolate_Butterbroth_Black_Pudding-Footnote_10.pdf)
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/609048/the-seven-deadly-sins-of-ai-predictions/

The Weekly Flyer – Monday, March 26th, 2018

The Markets

Why am I saving and investing?

After a week like last week, it’s an important question. There are many reasons people save and invest, including to:

• Live the life they want today and in the future

• Accumulate resources so they’re prepared for any bumps in the road

• Provide an education for their children

• Offer assistance to parents

• Support a young person with a disability

• Do good in the world

• Live comfortably in retirement without anxiety

However, none of these reasons have anything to do with short-term market fluctuations.

Last week, major U.S. stock indices experienced a selloff, and we saw a dramatic downturn in stock markets. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 5.7 percent, the Standard & Poor’s 500 index lost 6 percent, and the NASDAQ fell 6.5 percent, reported Barron’s.

Those are big moves for a single week. The kind of moves that light up the emotion centers of investors’ brains and make them want to sell.

It’s not a new phenomenon. In 2002, in an article for CNN Money, Jason Zweig explained the brain’s potentially negative influence on investment decisions, “But in the world of investing, a panicky response to a false alarm – dumping all your stocks just because the Dow is dropping – can be as costly as ignoring real danger. For one thing, it can cause you to flee the market at a low point and miss out when the market bounces back. A moment of panic can also disrupt your long-term investing strategy.”

So, what happened last week? In short:

• The Fed raised rates, as expected. The Federal Reserve raised the Fed funds rate by a quarter of a percent, which may benefit savers and investors, but will make borrowing more expensive.

• Tariffs triggered trade war worries. The Trump administration levied tariffs on China, raising concerns of a global trade war.

• You’re fired! There was additional turnover among senior advisers to President Trump.

• Can they do that? British news reported a data analytics firm has been influencing elections around the world in some unsavory ways.

• Don’t share my data! There was news a social media firm had shared the personal data of thousands with a researcher who shared it with a third-party firm without permission.

• Sigh. Another data breach. An online travel company experienced a data breach that may have exposed the personal information of 880,000 users.

• The economy is chugging along. Last week’s U.S. economic releases were overshadowed by everything else, but many indicated a strengthening economy, reported Barron’s.

That’s a lot to take in over the span of five days. The critical thing is to recognize these short-term events are unlikely to change your long-term financial goals. Financial decisions, including buying and selling investments, are important and can be life shaping. They should be grounded by long-term financial goals and foundational principles of investing. They should not be based on the brain’s instinctive fear and flight response.

Data as of 3/23/18 1-Week Y-T-D 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year
Standard & Poor’s 500 (Domestic Stocks) -6.0% -3.2% 10.3% 7.1% 10.8% 6.7%
Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. -2.7 -2.1 13.4 3.3 3.8 0.9
10-year Treasury Note (Yield Only) 2.8 NA 2.4 1.9 1.9 3.5
Gold (per ounce) 2.8 3.9 7.9 4.3 -3.4 3.8
Bloomberg Commodity Index 0.1 -0.8 3.4 -4.4 -8.7 -7.9
DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index -4.0 -10.0 3.7 0.9 6.3 6.1

S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; the DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index does include reinvested dividends and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods. Sources: Yahoo! Finance, Barron’s, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.

Let’s Take A Good News Break.

After last week, we could all use some good news. Here are 10 intriguing headlines from the Good News Network:

1. Scientists Believe They Found a Way to Stop Future Hurricanes in Their Tracks

2. Strangers Rally Around 13-Year-old Whose Rock Museum was Robbed

3. Dog that Shoplifted a Book on ‘Abandonment’ is Given the Love It was Asking For

4. Stranger Becomes Honorary Grandma After She Opens Home to Stranded Father in Distress

6. Robot Becomes Part of the Community After Easing Daily Burden of Water Collection in Remote Village

7. Instead of Using Trees, Scientists are Making Sustainable Paper Out of Manure

8. World’s First Mass-Produced, 3D-Printed Car is Electric and Costs Under $10K

9. This Pollution-Gobbling City Bench Can Absorb as Many Toxins as 275 Trees

10. Free Clothing Hung on Streets to Help the Homeless Stay Warm

There is a lot of good news in the world. Unfortunately, it doesn’t pack a wallop like bad news does, so we hear less about it.

Weekly Focus- Think About It

“When the weather changes, nobody believes the laws of physics have changed. Similarly, I don’t believe that when the stock market goes into terrible gyrations its rules have changed.”

Benoit Mandelbrot, Mathematician and polymath

Best regards & fly safe!

Alex A. Tapia, AIF®
President & Retirement Wealth Planner

W. Carr Burgoyne, Jr., CFP®, CFS, AIF®
Director of Investment Planning

ARS-logo

 

* These views are those of Peak Advisor Alliance, and not the presenting Representative or the Representative’s Broker/Dealer, and should not be construed as investment advice.
* This newsletter was prepared by Peak Advisor Alliance. Peak Advisor Alliance is not affiliated with the named broker/dealer.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indices referenced are unmanaged. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the afternoon gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association. The gold price is set twice daily by the London Gold Fixing Company at 10:30 and 15:00 and is expressed in U.S. dollars per fine troy ounce.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* You cannot invest directly in an index.
* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
* Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal.

Sources:
https://www.barrons.com/articles/why-did-dow-drop-1-400-pick-your-poison-1521852744 (or go to https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/peakcontent/+Peak+Commentary/03-26-18_Barrons-Why_Did_Dow_Drop_1400-Pick_Your_Poison-Footnote_1.pdf)
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/what-is-loss-aversion/
http://money.cnn.com/2002/09/25/pf/investing/agenda_brain_short/index.htm
https://www.consumerreports.org/interest-rate/fed-rate-hike-your-money/
https://www.cnn.com/2018/03/22/politics/donald-trump-china-tariffs-trade-war/index.html
https://www.brookings.edu/research/tracking-turnover-in-the-trump-administration/
https://www.ft.com/content/e4e95b6c-2dac-11e8-9b4b-bc4b9f08f381 (or go to https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/peakcontent/+Peak+Commentary/03-26-18_FinancialTimes-Chiefs_Hubris_Steered_Cambridge_Analytica_to_Data_Scandal-Footnote_7.pdf)
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-data-breach-affected-880000-people-and-it-has-nothing-to-do-with-facebook-2018-03-24
https://www.cnet.com/news/how-to-stop-sharing-facebook-data-after-cambridge-analytica-mess/
http://www.barrons.com/mdc/public/page/9_3063-economicCalendar.html?mod=BOL_Nav_MAR_other (Click on U.S. & Intl Recaps, then “Factory sector accelerates, housing prices climb”) (or go to https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/peakcontent/+Peak+Commentary/03-26-18_Barrons-Factory_Sector_Accerlerates-Housing_Prices_Climb-Footnote_10.pdf)
https://www.goodnewsnetwork.org/scientists-believe-they-found-a-way-to-stop-future-hurricanes-in-their-tracks/
https://www.goodnewsnetwork.org/strangers-rally-around-13-year-old-whose-rock-museum-was-robbed/
https://www.goodnewsnetwork.org/dog-shoplifts-book-on-abandonment/
https://www.goodnewsnetwork.org/stranger-becomes-honorary-grandma-after-she-opens-home-to-stranded-father-in-distress/
https://www.goodnewsnetwork.org/were-not-spinning-a-yarn-here-knitting-may-boost-health-and-happiness/
https://www.goodnewsnetwork.org/robot-becomes-part-of-the-community-after-easing-daily-burden-of-water-collection-in-remote-village/
https://www.goodnewsnetwork.org/instead-of-using-trees-scientists-are-making-sustainable-paper-out-of-manure/
https://www.goodnewsnetwork.org/worlds-first-mass-produced-3d-printed-car-is-electric-and-costs-under-10k/
https://www.goodnewsnetwork.org/this-pollution-gobbling-city-bench-absorbs-as-much-co2-as-275-trees/
https://www.goodnewsnetwork.org/free-clothing-hung-on-streets-to-help-the-homeless/
https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/benoit_mandelbrot_301439

The Weekly Flyer – Monday, March 19th, 2018

The Markets

It’s a good time for a gut check.

Last week, after sliding lower for four days, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index recouped some of its losses on Friday. The reasons behind the week’s poor showing were diverse. Barron’s reported:

“The market is so discombobulated right now that it can’t even decide what it’s afraid of. What do we mean? When the Standard & Poor’s 500 index suffered its first correction since the beginning of 2016 last month, the cause was easily identified – a good old-fashioned inflation scare caused by a larger-than-expected increase in wages and a rapidly rising 10-year Treasury yield, which almost hit 3 percent…Fast-forward more than a month and those fears seem almost quaint.”

Those fears included:

• Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s subpoena of the Trump Organization.

• The effects of recent tariffs and the possibility of trade wars.

• The departure of Secretary of State Rex Tillerson.

• The Atlanta Fed revised its GDPNow Forecast downward for the first quarter of 2018. Weakness in consumer spending, net exports, and inventory investment offset gains in private fixed-investment growth.

• The Commerce Department reported weak retail sales for the third month in a row. Economists had expected sales to rise.

Here’s the thing: During 2017, volatility settled at historically low levels and stock markets charged ahead. As a result, it was relatively easy for investors to become sanguine about risk. You could say 2017 made investing seem as mundane as driving across the flatlands of the Plains states. It’s possible 2018 will be more like traveling icy switchbacks through the Rocky Mountains.

No matter what happens in the months to come, it’s a good time to reassess your risk tolerance and make sure it aligns with your financial goals and asset allocation.

Data as of 3/16/18 1-Week Y-T-D 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year
Standard & Poor’s 500 (Domestic Stocks) -1.2% 2.9% 15.6% 9.8% 12.1% 8.0%
Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. 0.2 0.7 16.6 5.5 4.2 1.3
10-year Treasury Note (Yield Only) 2.9 NA 2.5 2.1 2.0 3.3
Gold (per ounce) -0.8 1.1 6.6 4.4 -4.0 2.6
Bloomberg Commodity Index -0.7 -0.9 2.9 -3.5 -8.7 -8.2
DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index 1.3 -6.2 1.2 3.7 7.2 7.5

S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; the DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index does include reinvested dividends and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods. Sources: Yahoo! Finance, Barron’s, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.

How Much Do You Spend On Healthcare?

Healthcare costs have been going up for a long time. The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services reported annual health spending – healthcare paid for through private health insurance, Medicare, Medicaid, or out-of-pocket spending by businesses, households and governments – in the United States averaged $3.3 trillion in 2016.

That’s about $10,348 per person. It’s a significant amount even before you consider the median income in the United States was about $57,600 that year.

Here’s another perspective: Healthcare spending was equal to almost one-fifth (17.9 percent of GDP) of everything the United States economy produced during 2016 (Gross Domestic Product – GDP – measures the value of all goods and services produced in a country). That’s more than U.S. manufacturing produced (11.7 percent of GDP) during 2016. Add in retail (5.9 percent of GDP) and the total is just shy of spending on healthcare.

The cost of healthcare is important not just because it’s high, but because it’s a critical aspect of retirement planning. A retirement plan is built around a horizon, which is the number of years you expect retirement to last. It’s a difficult number to think about because it’s a reflection of how long you expect to live.

In general, the planning horizon for women should be longer than the planning horizon for men. Women tend to live longer, and that means their healthcare costs may be considerably higher. About $79,000 higher, according to one estimate that found a healthy 55-year-old woman could pay almost $523,000 in healthcare expenses (Medicare Parts A, B, D, a supplemental policy F, dental, and all out-of-pocket expenses) during retirement.

There are a variety of approaches that may help cover the expense – even if you’re closing in on retirement. A retirement planning strategy that factors in healthcare expenses with an appropriate planning horizon can help improve financial stability in your later years.

Weekly Focus- Think About It

“We’re optimistic about ourselves, we’re optimistic about our kids, we’re optimistic about our families, but we’re not so optimistic about the guy sitting next to us, and we’re somewhat pessimistic about the fate of our fellow citizens and the fate of our country. But private optimism about our own personal future remains persistent. And it doesn’t mean that we think things will magically turn out okay, but rather that we have the unique ability to make it so.”

Tali Sharot, Associate Professor of Cognitive Neuroscience, University College London

Best regards & fly safe!

Alex A. Tapia, AIF®
President & Retirement Wealth Planner

W. Carr Burgoyne, Jr., CFP®, CFS, AIF®
Director of Investment Planning

ARS-logo

 

* These views are those of Peak Advisor Alliance, and not the presenting Representative or the Representative’s Broker/Dealer, and should not be construed as investment advice.
* This newsletter was prepared by Peak Advisor Alliance. Peak Advisor Alliance is not affiliated with the named broker/dealer.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indices referenced are unmanaged. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the afternoon gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association. The gold price is set twice daily by the London Gold Fixing Company at 10:30 and 15:00 and is expressed in U.S. dollars per fine troy ounce.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* You cannot invest directly in an index.
* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
* Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal.

Sources:
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history?p=%5EGSPC
https://www.barrons.com/articles/whipsawed-by-events-the-dow-drops-389-points-1521249865 (or go to https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/peakcontent/+Peak+Commentary/03-19-18_Barrons-Whipsawed_by_Events_the_Dow_Drops_389_Points-Footnote_2.pdf)
https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/14/retail-sales-decline-for-third-straight-month-in-february.html
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/markets-story-2017-fake-news-real-returns-162747489.html
https://www.cms.gov/Research-Statistics-Data-and-Systems/Statistics-Trends-and-Reports/NationalHealthExpendData/index.html
https://www.cms.gov/research-statistics-data-and-systems/statistics-trends-and-reports/nationalhealthexpenddata/nhe-fact-sheet.html
https://www.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=56&step=2&isuri=1#reqid=56&step=51&isuri=1&5602=5 (Click on Value Added By Industry, then select U. Value Added by Industry as Percentage of Gross Domestic Product) (or go to https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/peakcontent/+Peak+Commentary/03-19-18_BureauOfEconomics-U_Value_Added_by_Industry_as_a_Percentage_of+GDP-Footnote_8.pdf)
http://www.hvsfinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/Women_Retirement_Health_Care.pdf
https://www.ted.com/talks/tali_sharot_the_optimism_bias/transcript#t-141213